Money Migration
Not a perfectly edited or thought out post, but it's been sitting around a bit so I'm publishing, blemish and all -
Pattern for Progress, a mid-Hudson think tank whose focus to some degree is housing, and other related community development, released into my inbox what looked at first glance to be an interesting study on the Covid-related impacts on the Hudson Valley housing and economic front. And, that is what is was, but left me wanting significantly, and searched my inbox for part 2 and 3 that would cover more territory. Maybe I’m missing something.
Called Money Migration, it’s based on 5 years of data published by the IRS which collects data on people (families) moving into and out of areas, and their adjusted gross incomes (AGI) county to county and state to state. (this is being lifted mostly word for word from their white paper).
“Incomes, Migration, and Gentrification in the Hudson Valley during the Covid-19 Pandemic” - so don’t blame me for having high hopes for this document - that’s a great subtitle by any measure, especially for someone right smack dab in the center of the hurricane, both reeling from and benefiting from the era.
Interestingly, lumber prices have dropped significantly, and anyone who experienced the jump - literally a tripling or more in 2020, 2021 and 2022 - will never forget the day in day out anxiety of this lumber creep, or in many situations, this lumber price explosion accompanied by true scarcity. There was a time when you didn’t know what next would next be unavailable. At times it became very close to vital and non-interchangeable components. Some examples of product that just disappeared and became unavailable was wood siding, hence our overnight transition to HardyPlank, once considered a mighty upgrade but with the increase in wood prices actually become on par with wood siding (if available, which it wasn’t).
They seem to use a 2x4 fir as a baseline board foot measurement and in 2022 it was $630 per 1000 board feet, and in June 2024 it was $346 per board foot. So to reduce it to something we’d all understand, in 2022 board foot was $.63 and in 2024 it is $.34. To make it even more meaningful, turn it into a 2x4x8 - a piece of wood many people have familiarity with - and it was $.63 x 8 or $5.04 in 2022 and $2.72 in 2024. Truth be told, I think the $5.04 in 2022 understates the case, due to regional differences or something - I remember it being higher.
More shocking yet was plywood and plywood sheathing (OSB), which you use tons of over the course of framing a house - OSB was so cheap we’d use it for walkways over mud, and then it turned into gold that people were stealing like they used to do with cooper.
Crazy time to live through for sure and our industry was in the center of the storm.
And on the hybrid/remote work front - according to the Office Building Index from location intelligence software company Placer.ai, which found the national average for office attendance was down only 29.4% compared to June 2019. I guess what they are saying is it looks like the reinvented workplace will accomodate a 30% work from home environment. Because it's national, and across all industries, probably - like a lot of statistics - very misleading regionally, and among certain white collar professions. I know a ton of people that still work from home partially and or mostly. I think the workplace has been reinvented into a more flexible situation even among 'full time office people' that the definition of full time in office has changed.
Summer is Swinging
Summer is in full swing, with the lettuce ready to cut and the first tomatoes primed for the picking. The lavender is reaching towards the sky and the neighboring black-eyed susans are awakening.
I’m reading This Side of Paradise, a F Scott Fitzgerald coming of age novel on 1922 or so. It’s a brief, concise work of literature, one I’ve read many times over the years. I’m not nearly as enthralled as I used to be. Lake Geneva, Princeton U and NYC are the main locales.
Juxtaposed is Thomas Wolfe’s 800 page opus, a coming of age story written about the same time as the above-mentioned. Taking place in Asheville NC when the city was just getting started. The Biltmore, that Vanderbilt mansion, was built in 1890’s.
Lucas, my son, has edged out a few others for the QB-in-waiting position, as a sophomore. It's his job to lose at this point, primed to general the varsity team for his 11th and 12th grade seasons.
I’m sure I’m not the only one with an ex-wife that experiences ebbs and flows with the relationship, which become more complicated as the child ages and issues become adult-ish, instead of child-ish. I mention it because once again I receive the benefit of legal advice that counsels inaction, instead of action. A well-explained examination of gain v loss, of goal attainment v bomb-throwing feel-good water treading is the best counsel.
It’s been hot - like mid-90’s, for most of a month now. I’m not sure if the periodic rain has been enough to keep farmers, reservoirists and canoers happy, but my grass and assorted plantings seem to be doing fine. I installed some under the ground irrigation the other year, and that definitely helped, after I got over the fact that the irrigation that was installed called for way more water than my well could produce - that seemed like a simple checklist item the installer should have considered. Nothing like running your well dry repeatedly! Or maybe just the nature of the beast.
We closed on Ranch 69 last week, and it turned out swimmingly. Pics here.
Next we close on an American Four Square and a Ranch up in Olivebridge NY. That should happen prior to Labor Day, God Willing.
Here’s the link to the Mini-Barn I brokered the other day.
Everyone is dying their hair blond in my son's friend group.
Hit the Delaware River for a swim after our Monday mountain bike ride.
Finally getting out on my respective bikes like I've always aspired to. 2x a week - 25-40 miles. Been a good summer. Weather-wise too - though I guess it's been hot.
Trades, rebranded
4th of July, with the 3rd delivering two closings as previously reported. But just because they are on the books doesn’t mean every closing happens, since things going sideways is the nature of the business. However, for us, with a skill team ranging from lawyers to carpenters to administrators, we are pretty good as bring them home when scheduled.
The mini-barn, which Josh and Jennifer owned since 2015, has resold by my real estate company, Lazy Meadows. The mini-barns are fun houses, with a ton of style.
Ranch 69 also sold to Arlen and Sydney, and that 2500 sq ft Ranch on a bunch of acres turned out really sweeeet.
With no new starts recently, we are juggling the fewest amount of homes under construction since 2019/early 2020. That’s fine with me. The heavy llft daily 3 page to do lists can bend your back after awhile, and 24 years is by any definition ‘a while’.
Back to a little more trade v college discussion. I’m a reader, and attribute much of my economic forward progress to reading and writing, developed by reading and writing - communication is important. So, as parents and students rightfully and intelligently shy away from large loads of student loan debt and degrees with value in the marketplace, the ability to pivot into trade schools, community colleges, and specific industry programs like programming that take 9 months should become more measurable.
1, that’s good. However, there seems to be a lane for this early career track to be complimented with some liberal arts education. Two things - the non-4 year college track needs to be rebranded, from ‘trades’ to something else, like the ‘accelerated career’ path. “Trades” just doesn’t capture all the jobs being put into that basket, under that umbrella. Barbers, programmers, welders, home theater, landscape design, some nursing, seamstresses, musicians, auto mechanics, photography - this isn’t captured well by the generic ‘trades’. The 2nd thing is that a liberal arts intro to history, english, or whatever - just the exposure to ideas, thinking, a broadening of perspective - if those who choose the accelerated career path want to escape the stigma of the ‘trade’ brand, then they have to start acting the part, and adding some wider learning into their program.
It’s early on the 4th, and I feel the ideas above are poorly articulated, but it’s a start.
It’s stupid when a person feels compelled not to recognize deficiencies in their arguments, and there are certainly deficiencies to any argument that throws shade on the college experience with nuance. Education - direct and indirect- , networking, exposure to new ideas, getting away from the hometown, peer enhancement - all these by-products of higher education have value.
But at what cost? $50k of debt? $100k of debt? An environment now that emphasisizes the ‘college experience’ as much as the education? Education costs have accelerated far beyond what market forces would allow, and it’s all because of the predatory lending programs aimed at clueless kids and parents who want to help their kids succeed - so in some very simple ways, college has become a scam to over-hype their value, and over-charge as a result, and have a government that hasn’t produced a good regulatory framework around student loans. And then a full 40% or more don’t finish college, or take more than 4 years.
The pressure to accept the most prominent college offer, regardless of cost, because it can be paid for with loans, needs to change, since few if any future jobs will depend on ‘where’ you get you degree, so dialing into a smart financial choice is important.
There are more ‘trade’ jobs - interesting and creative - out there now then ever before, and they are unfilled, they have significant advancement opportunities, they pay well, and the path forward through these careers are easy to see.
I value education. I think reading opens up all sorts of worlds - both creative and practical. I actually wouldn’t wish a narrow path of curriculum on anyone, knowing what I know now and understanding the impact of a broad education, which promotes empathy, context, sympathy and general understanding of space and time.
A lot of words to have come full circle without even a hint of problem resolution.
Ranch selling and a trip to Martha's Vineyard
After a night in NYC and dining at the mid-town seafood joint Milos, I drove back upstate, managed the bills and payables for the week, packed and then headed out for Martha’s Vineyard, via the Wood Hole ferry.
We have another house queued up for sale in Narrowsburg, which my friend Tony has been sending me a bunch of articles being written about the area. From my experience, when that starts to happen, typically there is someone new in town with some press connections who is getting us in the news. I’ve literally built 50 homes in Narrowsburg, first when it was a true tumbleweed town with a good diner, from there a few hardy small businesspeople who have stayed put and anchored the town. I can’t say our clients single-handedly built that town with their discretionary spending, but there’s no doubt their weekend leisure spending helped create the sustainability that small businesses crave. I’d walk into the Heron when it opened in 2009 or so, and literally, and I mean literally, every table would be occupied by a Catskill Farms homeowner. That type of consistent customer means a lot to an establishment.
More than that, our marketing efforts were more robust and effective than the visitor’s association at the time, our digital footprint easy to find, and our pencil sketches of life upstate - be it the blog, or the houses, or the presentation - drew in a whole new set of eyeballs on the area. From 2002-2015, we were one of the only companies putting up new homes geared to the weekend crowd.
Homes have - to use a favorite phrase a business school grad taught me - not only an economic cross-multiplier, meaning buying a home is just the first of many purchases and investments a homeowning family will make, but there is for sure a continued marketing residue of them owning a home upstate - talking about it, going up there, inviting friends, expousing through social media network about their little dream escape upstate.
The house we have just about ready to sell sits up on a little hill with fantastic tree-filtered morning light hitting an expanse of windows positioned just right - accidental perfect house placement, I think not. It’s a lot of value for what they are paying in today’s market.
I came across an article listing, in breathless tones, the salaries of cardiac surgeons, etc… and I have to say, I was surprised by the modesty of them. Spend 15 years in school and make $600k. My mason probably doubles that. My one excavator who has his fingers in lawn care, hardscaping and dirt work, definitely meets or exceeds that. I haven’t seen those levels in 5 years and typically double, triple or more that. I tell you, there is a ton of money in the trades, and you can definitely be making $100k at age 22 with no student loan debt with a good plan - that puts him/them on a route to be $700,000 in earnings more than the college graduate. And if that college person is coming out with debt and making $60k a year, by the time the two different routes hit 30, the tradesperson is a million dollars ahead. And even in future earnings, there’s as much advancement potential for the trades than there is for white collar, and more often than not, the trades actually reward accumulated skill whereas white collar is half bullshit and the other half faking it. Of course, that’s too strong of a characterization, but a lot of white collar stuff is nonsense - staring at a screen, acting busy.
I don’t really believe everything I just wrote, but there’s truth to it.
Now, back to Martha’s Vineyard. During summers at the University of Pittsburgh, where I was the first person in a large family attempting college (I have 100 first cousins), I met up with some guys and became friends and we ventured to Martha’s Vineyard one cold weekend in winter, 1989, looking for work. Farmer Jim Athearn of Morning Glory Farm hired us on the spot (for $4.25 minimum wage) for that coming summer in the comfort of his living room. This was pre-Clinton, who raised the profile of the Vineyard, followed by some boom years, then Obama sought it out, so the trajectory has been growth and more growth. The farm was a nuts and bolts operation back then and now its got an international brand. Lots of people know Edgartown and Morning Glory Farm.
So my friend Leo, from college and the Vineyard, now lives in Sonoma Cty California, and my friend Justen, has called Martha’s Vineyard home since 1994. So we are all up here, they with their wives, me solo, telling the same stories of the glory days of end of farm work week downing large quantities of Southern Comfort and stumbling around town. While we weren’t part of it, the children of the New England blue bloods abounded. I haven’t been up here in a bit, and you forget about the polished safe leisure good-looking life of the Ivy League Upper Classes.
I brought my bike, and did 35 miles in a stiff wind around the island. Packing my bike in my Benz coupe, working with rachets, and tools and the like and trying to get it into the trunk and more or less just looking like a fool, reminded me of something I’ve known for a long time but kind of keep quiet - I would never hire myself for any of the field work required for the success of what I do - even as a laborer. Both my aptitude for it, and my attitude towards it (when I’m doing it myself, I greatly admire and respect the work of others) both are lacking, and it shows quickly when put to the test.
Lucas' summer is getting off to a fast start, with a week at Virginia Beach and then a week at my house leisuring caped off with an epic day of friends and a sleep over.
Half of this crew and others dyed their hair blonde.
The room temperature down in the TV room was like 95 degrees with all the heating engines of teenagers.
It occurred to me, while riding my bike, that most town I've lived in over the last 40 years have been on an upward trajectory, economically - Lancaster, PA - Pittsburgh PA - Martha's Vineyard - NYC - Catskills - Milford - Hudson Valley. I'm sure that economic 'brighter day' has served as a strong rip tide in my overall business investment optimism as I launch ventures, or stick with it in hopes the tide turns my way.
